Hillary Wins
Oh well, that's the problem with prognostication- I was WRONG WRONG WRONG. I don't understand where Clinton's support is coming from- do people really not remember how NOT progressive the Clinton's were?
Do people really want 28 years of Clinton/Bush?
I guess everyone else was shocked too- but still- as of now- it's all wide open.
For what its worth my current guess:
Clinton vs. Guliani with Clinton winning in November. Big whoop.
We'll see.
Edwards isn't dropping out quite yet and I still very much have my fingers crossed.
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Vote for Edwards!!
So here's what I see happening as of the early afternoon of January 8th, the day of the NH primary.
Barack will win- probably by as much as 10 points- which is going to hurt the Hilary campaign pretty badly- and may very well spin her out of contention- especially if she sticks to her current plan of running on the atrocious record of Bill Clinton as her "record of change."
There are certainly "centrist" democrats who look fondly back at the Clinton years, but most of look back and see a series of horrible mistakes- NAFTA, GATT, bombing aspirin factories, overseeing the creation of our "service" economy, the Telecommunications Act of 96, his "crime" bill, the total failure to make any headway on health insurance reform. Sure, none of it is as bad as what Bush has done, but it's NOT GOOD EITHER.
But Barack is really no different than Hillary. He's trying to make himself into a figure like JFK or Martin Luther King, in fact, he got a little flack on the news this morning for comparing himself to exactly those people- but what I think he doesn't understand, what I don’t think anyone understands, it that NO ONE will ever be JFK or MLK again. The reason is simple, the free ride the media used to give to people over their foibles is OVER- and has been for a couple of decades. Sure, while the whole thing is glamorous and everyone's caught up in the excitement of the horserace they'll be some overlooking- it certainly happened with Bush- but the truth is, not even JFK and MLK were JFK and MLK. Those figures were legends, like Wild Bill Hickok- they weren't people. Legends don't survive in 2008 because the media (rightly in my opinion) doesn't let them. So it's just a matter of time before the free ride ends and the media starts to point out Barack's rhetoric doesn't match his actual policies, as Clinton has been so desperately pointing out since Iowa.
I don't know if Barack really will implode, but if it happens, and I really do think it will, I really hope its sooner and not later. I don't want his eventual demolition to take place after the nomination- where the result could be something as depressing as President McCain- or god help us- President Huckafuckabee. I'd rather see the backlash start now.
Anyone who thinks the free ride will continue through November is naïve in the extreme. Believe me, there's going to be thinly veiled racism and Osama jokes galore. If Obama was a true progressive then I think he could weather the storm and keep the base- but he's not. He's a very smart, very lucky, very talented politician who can never live up to his rhetoric because the simple truth is- the Republicans will NEVER work with him. And it's not because their racist. It's because THEY DON'T WANT CHANGE!!! Why should they? They're rich, their buddies are rich. Why would they want to move the country forward when its current position is serving them so well? Every time Obama says he's going to work with both sides, he's really saying he will DO NOTHING.
There's only one candidate that understands this with a viable shot to win- John Edwards.
Edwards is telling it straight- if we want change, we need to elect someone who is fully aware going in that EVERY SINGLE PROGRESSIVE VICTORY IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE ROYALE IN A DIRTY FIGHT THAT IS GOING TO REQUIRE BITING, KICKING, AND PROBABLY A LITTLE CHEATING.
We need a fighter, not a uniter. Don't you remember? Bush was a uniter not a divider and look how that turned out. The problem is, I think Obama is being honest when he says it- which tells me he's not fit to serve. We need a guy who's going to take all of Bush's executive power and use it with the same intensity for good as Bush used it for evil. We need a guy who's willing to go straight at corporations, the media, and lobbyists. Someone who isn't afraid to force the hand of what will surely be a democratic congress. Edwards is talking like a man who knows exactly what he's up against and he's itching for a fight. Never mind pretty words, fighting words are what warms my heart and gives me the kind of hope no amount of rhetorical flourish from Obama can.
So here's what I see happening as of the early afternoon of January 8th, the day of the NH primary.
Barack will win- probably by as much as 10 points- which is going to hurt the Hilary campaign pretty badly- and may very well spin her out of contention- especially if she sticks to her current plan of running on the atrocious record of Bill Clinton as her "record of change."
There are certainly "centrist" democrats who look fondly back at the Clinton years, but most of look back and see a series of horrible mistakes- NAFTA, GATT, bombing aspirin factories, overseeing the creation of our "service" economy, the Telecommunications Act of 96, his "crime" bill, the total failure to make any headway on health insurance reform. Sure, none of it is as bad as what Bush has done, but it's NOT GOOD EITHER.
But Barack is really no different than Hillary. He's trying to make himself into a figure like JFK or Martin Luther King, in fact, he got a little flack on the news this morning for comparing himself to exactly those people- but what I think he doesn't understand, what I don’t think anyone understands, it that NO ONE will ever be JFK or MLK again. The reason is simple, the free ride the media used to give to people over their foibles is OVER- and has been for a couple of decades. Sure, while the whole thing is glamorous and everyone's caught up in the excitement of the horserace they'll be some overlooking- it certainly happened with Bush- but the truth is, not even JFK and MLK were JFK and MLK. Those figures were legends, like Wild Bill Hickok- they weren't people. Legends don't survive in 2008 because the media (rightly in my opinion) doesn't let them. So it's just a matter of time before the free ride ends and the media starts to point out Barack's rhetoric doesn't match his actual policies, as Clinton has been so desperately pointing out since Iowa.
I don't know if Barack really will implode, but if it happens, and I really do think it will, I really hope its sooner and not later. I don't want his eventual demolition to take place after the nomination- where the result could be something as depressing as President McCain- or god help us- President Huckafuckabee. I'd rather see the backlash start now.
Anyone who thinks the free ride will continue through November is naïve in the extreme. Believe me, there's going to be thinly veiled racism and Osama jokes galore. If Obama was a true progressive then I think he could weather the storm and keep the base- but he's not. He's a very smart, very lucky, very talented politician who can never live up to his rhetoric because the simple truth is- the Republicans will NEVER work with him. And it's not because their racist. It's because THEY DON'T WANT CHANGE!!! Why should they? They're rich, their buddies are rich. Why would they want to move the country forward when its current position is serving them so well? Every time Obama says he's going to work with both sides, he's really saying he will DO NOTHING.
There's only one candidate that understands this with a viable shot to win- John Edwards.
Edwards is telling it straight- if we want change, we need to elect someone who is fully aware going in that EVERY SINGLE PROGRESSIVE VICTORY IS GOING TO BE A BATTLE ROYALE IN A DIRTY FIGHT THAT IS GOING TO REQUIRE BITING, KICKING, AND PROBABLY A LITTLE CHEATING.
We need a fighter, not a uniter. Don't you remember? Bush was a uniter not a divider and look how that turned out. The problem is, I think Obama is being honest when he says it- which tells me he's not fit to serve. We need a guy who's going to take all of Bush's executive power and use it with the same intensity for good as Bush used it for evil. We need a guy who's willing to go straight at corporations, the media, and lobbyists. Someone who isn't afraid to force the hand of what will surely be a democratic congress. Edwards is talking like a man who knows exactly what he's up against and he's itching for a fight. Never mind pretty words, fighting words are what warms my heart and gives me the kind of hope no amount of rhetorical flourish from Obama can.
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